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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.